Your wallet will feel the squeeze
This Is the Next Breakfast Item Skyrocketing in Price
Published on Feb. 28, 2025
If your monthly grocery bill is looking more like your mortgage, you’re not alone. According to the USDA, food prices roses by 23.6% between 2020 and 2024. And don’t get me started on eggs, which increased in price by 15% between December 2024 and January 2025 alone.
In fact, the USDA has more bad news: In 2025, overall food prices are expected to increase 3.4%, which is slightly larger than the historical average. And those eggs? They’re predicted to become 41.1% more expensive. Ay-yai-yai.
Now there’s another breakfast item in major pricing peril, and it will have you clutching your glassware. Read on to find out what it is, what’s causing the price hike and how you can make the squeeze a little less painful.
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What breakfast item is going up exponentially in price?
Orange juice is the next item in everyone’s least-favorite game: “How much does that cost now?” Nothing is immune to inflation, but from 2000 to 2022, the price of orange juice rose 12% in total. That’s even with orange juice demand hitting a major high during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. (I guess we were all betting on that vitamin C to keep us healthy!)
However, in 2023, OJ’s cost started increasing at a record speed. In January 2023, the price of frozen concentrate orange juice was $2.82. Then, by April 2024, the average price of that same product hit $4.28. That’s a 34.1% increase in just 16 months!
The USDA is already calling a predicted 4.4% price hike on nonalcoholic beverages in 2025, but orange juice is a bit of a different beast.
Why is orange juice suddenly so expensive?
Over the past two years, we’ve seen orange juice prices explode for a number of reasons.
“The citrus industry is in a tight spot, and the price of orange juice tells an even bigger story about climate, disease and the fragility of our food systems,” says Valeria Nyman, Chief Product Officer for Taim.io, a platform that helps people grow their own food.
Ultimately, there’s a high demand for orange juice … but fewer oranges with which to make juice due to crop limitations. Here’s why:
Greening disease
According to Nyman, the biggest issue facing orange juice manufacturers is citrus greening. “This is a bacterial disease spread by tiny insects that’s decimating orange groves, especially in Florida,” she says. “And the Sunshine State produces most of the U.S.’s juice oranges.”
Florida saw the beginning of citrus greening way back in 2005, and while growers were optimistic about managing it, they failed to get the problem under control. “By the 2010s, it was clear the disease wasn’t going anywhere,” Nyman says. “It’s been a long, ugly decline.” Once a tree is infected by citrus greening, there’s no cure. The result is small, bitter fruit not fit for your juice glass.
Brazil, which is our other main source of juice oranges, is having greening problems of its own, compounding the problem.
Climate change
Florida winters have been getting warmer—by as much as 5 degrees over the past 50 years, depending on the city. Know what pests love? Heat. So warmer winters mean more pests survive.
“Recent strong hurricanes [including Helene and Milton] have also wiped out groves overnight,” Nyman says.
Productions costs
Fertilizer prices continue to climb, and there has been an increase in minimum wages. Both have cut into the bottom line for commercial orange growers. Meanwhile, changes in federal immigration policies have created a labor shortage, as migrants were primarily working in the orange groves. So even if there was a surplus of oranges to pick, there aren’t enough workers to pick them.
“These costs make it harder to keep orchards running,” Nyman says.
How bad is the orange juice business?
If you look at the money troubles of Tropicana Brands Group, which owns its namesake orange juice, it puts into perspective just how difficult it is to turn a profit on OJ right now. And that’s despite demand.
In the last quarter, Tropicana’s revenue dropped by 4% and its income by 10%, according to financial outlet Debtwire. To put that in perspective, revenue is the total amount a company makes from sales of its products; income is the money remaining after the company’s expenses have been paid.
Is there any relief in sight?
In short: no. At least not in the immediate future.
“Brazil, the world’s biggest orange juice supplier, is having its own citrus greening problems, so we can’t rely on imports to save the day,” Nyman says. She also notes that there are some promising disease-resistant orange-tree varieties in development, but those will take years to mature.
“If you’re looking for a solution right now, maybe switch to apple juice,” she jokes.
What can you do to bring your OJ costs down?
But seriously, if you love orange juice but don’t want to go broke buying it, here are a few money-saving tips to try:
- Don’t assume the best prices are at warehouse stores. Currently, orange juice prices are high everywhere, including the warehouse stores that almost always have items for cheaper. For example, my local Costco has a three-pack of Kirkland Signature Orange Juice, 59 oz., for $16.59. That breaks down to $5.53 per bottle, or $0.09 per ounce. However, Walmart’s Great Value Orange Juice, 89 oz., is $7.42 at the time of publication, breaking down to $0.08 per ounce. Use your phone’s calculator to work out the math, dividing your store’s price by the number of ounces in the OJ bottle. For reference, $0.08 or less per ounce is a good price in 2025.
- Consider orange juice that’s mixed with another juice or beverage. If orange supply is low, buy a juice that mixes the 100% orange juice with another fruit, like pineapple juice. This cuts down on the amount of oranges needed to manufacture the bottle or carton, but still delivers that vitamin C. These blends tend to be less expensive than straight orange juice, like Dole Pineapple Orange Juice, 59 oz., for $4.49 at an Albertson’s grocery affiliate. This breaks down to that sweet $0.08 per ounce price point. Or mix orange juice with seltzer for a fruity spritzer.
- Freeze orange juice when you find a great deal. This might sound excessive, but hear me out. Orange juice, even the type that is made from previously frozen concentrate, is perfectly freezable. If you find a great deal on OJ (generally $0.07/ounce or less), you can buy a few bottles and empty them into freezer bags, then stack them in the freezer to preserve them.
- Steer clear of juice concentrate. In the past, buying those 12-ounce cans of frozen orange juice concentrate was a way to save on orange. Once thawed, you could add three 12-ounce cans of water, and voila—you had 48 ounces of OJ. But frozen concentrate has gone up in price too. And considering a single can now cost $3.99 or more, you’ll still end up paying $0.08 an ounce.
- Grow your own. OK, so this suggestion isn’t practical for many, but if you have the space and live in a citrus-growing zone, maybe an orange tree is in your future. “Plant a few citrus trees in your own backyard, and cross your fingers,” Nyman says. “Gardening teaches patience if nothing else!”
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Sources:
- USDA: “U.S. food prices rose by 23.6 percent from 2020 to 2024”
- USDA: “Food Price Outlook, 2025”
- USDA Economic Research Service: “Inflation-adjusted orange juice prices up 12 percent over 20 years”
- USDA Economic Research Service: “Retail orange juice sales rise during pandemic to highest levels in five years”
- Axios: “Orange Juice Falls Prey to Inflation”
- WUSF: “Winters Are Warming in Florida, Despite the Recent Cold Snap”
- Florida Orange: “Florida Orange Industry Labor Issues”
- DTN: “DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends”
- CNN: “Tropicana is in big financial trouble”
